Markets rarely wait for clarity, they move on expectations. And right now, expectations are being shaped by headlines coming out of the Middle East.

Over 30 days into the conflict in Iran, markets have continued to respond favorably to headline news and rumors pointing toward a possible resolution. While we have seen this pattern play out repeatedly, with early gains often fading… this week stood out. We saw two strong days where the market opened with meaningful gap-ups and held those gains through the close. Our takeaway is that any credible sign of the conflict moving toward an end gives the market a reason to find firmer footing and greater stability.

From a 30,000-foot perspective, the S&P 500 is only down 7% from its all-time high. In the grand scheme, that is a relatively muted pullback, even though headline risk and higher gas prices at the pump can make things feel much worse in real time. That is the nature of volatility and it is uncomfortable, but it is also a routine part of the investment process. Volatility is normal, but it
usually does not define the outcome. Over the last three years, the market has experienced declines ranging from roughly 10% to nearly 20% at some point each year, and yet it still finished higher every single year. The decline is the experience, not necessarily the outcome.

On top of that, we have seen signs of market participation beyond AI-related positions, which is an encouraging sign for overall market health. With all of this in mind, rest assured we are actively reviewing strategic opportunities created by this pullback. As history has shown time and again, patience has rewarded investors who stay committed to their plan rather than
reacting to the moment.

We hope these words are encouraging in the big picture or at the very least take the edge off a bit.

We’ll keep a close eye on how things develop and continue to position thoughtfully as opportunities present themselves.